Study Goal: Spark Economic Diversification East Kern County Economy

The East Kern County economic diversification study currently being carried out by the Austin-based TIP Strategies has found that "location quotients" (LQ) by occupation show ratios of high-level jobs per geographical designation above those of the nation, state and Kern County as a whole.

"Location quotients by occupation is one of the most exciting findings," TIP senior consultant John Karras said at a presentation to the East Kern Economic Alliance on Sept. 7, 2016 at the Rio Tinto plant community room in Boron. TIP Strategies President and CEO Tom Stellman also spoke.

TIP is conducting the study under a grant won by Kern County and paid for by the Office of Economic Adjustment, an arm of the Department of Defense.

In seeming contrast to the "relatively low levels of educational attainment" TIP lists as one of the weaknesses of the East Kern economy, the LQ reveals that in seven categories East Kern has a proportionately better share of good jobs than are found in other locations.

These occupations, Karras said, "are higher skilled, higher paying at a much higher level than the national economy. There is highly skilled talent working in East Kern."

In Architecture and Engineering, which is at the top of the list, East Kern shows a 3.66 LQ, compared to 1.32 for Kern County, 1.35 for Greater Antelope Valley, 1.16 for California (and a baseline of 1.00 for the U.S.). The Life, Physical and Social Science category in the No. 2 spot has an LQ of 2.45, compared to 1.07 for Kern County, 1.31 for Greater Antelope Valley and 1.16 for California. This category would include researchers, biologists, psychologists, physicists and chemists. Correctional officers, police and fire personnel account for the figures for the third place category, Protective Service, with (respectively), LQ's of 1.76, 1.32, 0.98 and 0.97. The next three categories that similarly show a significant ratio of high-level jobs are Business and Financial Operations; Installation, Maintenance and Repair; Computer and Mathematical; and Community and Social Service.

In LQs by industry, Federal government (civilian) is number one, with an LQ of 11.23, compared to 1.55 for Kern County, 4.03 for Greater Antelope Valley and 0.73 for California. The next LQ by industry is Mining (including oil and gas) at 4.93, which is outpaced by Kern County at 6.15 (with resources in West Kern), Greater Antelope Valley at 1.31 and California at 0.30.

Another chart, Job growth by industry, 2010-2015, reveals that restaurants, bars and hotels together with healthcare posted the greatest jobs gains. The chart goes negative with job losses recorded in manufacturing, agriculture, property sales and leasing, finance and insurance, utilities and big drops for professional services, personal and other services (negative 368) and civilian federal government jobs (negative 612).

Stellman said the researchers are at the midpoint of the study and "reaching the end of the discovery phase. We are taking every opportunity to drill down a lot further on the work force, retail leakage, commuting patterns and economic strengths."

The consultants will develop a regional diversification plan and will work on six individual community strategic plans (Tehachapi, Mojave, Rosamond, California City, Boron, Ridgecrest).

Tehachapi City Manager Greg Garrett, who had questioned the usefulness of the study for the city at an earlier meeting in Tehachapi conducted by coconsultants Chabin Concepts of Chico, Calif., asked, "Who can organize this? We don't want to just have a document that everybody loves but it goes on the shelf. We need a team or leader for the whole group to move forward."

Garrett said he is more interested in the regional plan.

"We know what we can do in Tehachapi," he said.